04 Mar 2019

Economic Insights - February 2019

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by Robert F. Baur, Ph.D. , Executive Director, Chief Global Economist
Robin J. Anderson, Ph.D., Senior Global Economist
  • A U.S. economic expansion for the ages. With little evidence of the imbalances or forces that typically bring on a U.S. recession, this expansion could be one of the best of all time.
  • Interest rates: Historic policy change. The Fed undertakes a review of its inflation target that may result in a goal of average inflation. That could keep the Fed dovish for a long time.
  • Market outlook: Is the monster rally over? It’s unlikely to continue. If the world growth slowdown is over, interest rates will rise. If it isn’t, stocks are overpriced. Neither is good for the market.
  • Economic update: Lowdown on the slowdown. It may be winding down, with first quarter U.S. growth poised to disappoint, fiscal stimulus stabilizing in China, and modest rebounds underway in Europe and Japan. 

Click above to read the entire update.