Quick takes on capital markets

Short, timely insights on the latest global macroeconomic and investment trends impacting investors, and portfolios.

01 Apr 2022
As ongoing supply chain issues from Asia and eastern Europe continue to impact supply and drive-up costs, firms producing discretionary or durable goods may soon find that consumers are becoming...
25 Mar 2022
Despite encouraging signals from policymakers in China, more concrete policy action will likely be required to sustain the recent positive market momentum. ...
18 Mar 2022
Only once has the Fed waited for inflation to reach such high levels before it started to raise rates, and during the first year of that hiking cycle in 1980, they raised policy rates by more than...
11 Mar 2022
While the median sales price of existing homes reached an all-time high in February, the high prices are also driving increased demand from potential buyers toward the rental market. ...
04 Mar 2022
During a rapidly developing geopolitical conflict, although difficult, investors are best suited to stay level-headed, and consider that fundamentals are ultimately the most important driver of...
25 Feb 2022
Though household balance sheets are still healthy, dwindling real cash holdings for the lowest net worth households foreshadow a gradual downshift in consumer spending beyond H2 2022. ...
18 Feb 2022
Despite a historically poor month of January, the municipal bond outflow cycle has resulted in a tax-equivalent yield (TEY) advantage for munis relative to corporates. Since municipals have a 95%...
11 Feb 2022
An inverted yield curve is a recessionary signal. Yet, despite recent curve flattening as markets price in a steep Fed hiking cycle, strong consumer spending power, cash-rich balance sheets, and...
04 Feb 2022
Despite recent market fluctuations, pullbacks are quite normal. Investor concerns today are likely exaggerated and don't accurately represent the still-supportive backdrop for risk assets. ...
28 Jan 2022
Countries that are net consumers of oil are highly vulnerable to an energy shock arising from a Russia/Ukraine conflict. By contrast, United States oil production and consumption are more balanced,...
21 Jan 2022
While real yields have risen sharply, broadly reflecting tightening financial conditions, they're still in negative territory. So, while we'll likely see increased volatility in equity markets,...
14 Jan 2022
Although rising bond yields are challenging the entire tech sector, investors must distinguish between profitless names that are a long way from demonstrating healthy earning power and mega-cap...
13 May 2022
The S&P 500 has registered six consecutive weekly losses for the first time in more than a decade, as growth concerns over the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening schedule have...
06 May 2022
The extreme supply-demand imbalance should support demand for new homes even as rising mortgage rates impact affordability. The construction industry stands to benefit from this resilience,...
29 Apr 2022
After falling desperately behind the inflation curve, the Federal Reserve has finally recognized the urgent need to tighten policy. An incoming wave of policy rate hikes, coupled with balance sheet...
22 Apr 2022
Recently, China’s COVID-19 situation has deteriorated, with rising case counts and increasing lockdowns. While the People’s Bank of China has tried to limit capital outflows, their monetary...
14 Apr 2022
After hitting another 40-year high, U.S. CPI inflation is likely near the peak, with stabilizing commodity prices and slower demand for durable goods. Nonetheless, the Fed will need to engineer a...
08 Apr 2022
Despite the tumultuous start to the year, markets are yet again displaying signs of resiliency to another correction. For investors, who are now adjusting to a faster pace of Fed tightening and...